Mary Peltola
November 5, 2026 · Newsletter
Mary Peltola’s path to victory
Team Mary here, taking over Mary’s Substack with an important update on our Senate race in Alaska. With more than 70% of the expected votes counted, Mary is leading and on track to win.
Help us make sure every vote is protected and every ballot is counted.
The numbers are clear: when every vote is counted, Mary Peltola will be elected as Alaska’s next United States Senator. Tens of thousands of early votes and absentee ballots are still outstanding, and the data shows that these will break for Mary and extend her lead.
Despite Sullivan pushing fictitious paths to victory that exclude the voices of thousands of Alaskans, every Alaskan’s vote will be counted, and Mary will win this race.
It’s important to us to be transparent with you, the grassroots supporters who have powered this campaign every step of the way. So here is more information about Mary’s path to victory:
Early Votes & Absentee Ballots: Tens of thousands of votes are yet to be counted, many of which are Early in Person (EIP) and Absentee ballots. To this point, Mary has won 56.6% of EIP votes and 56.7% of mail ballots, and there is no evidence to suggest this trend will slow. There was a 22% surge in EIP voting among Democrats and a 26% decline in Republican EIP voting compared to this point in 2024.
Ranked-Choice Tabulation: Based on everything we have seen to date, a ranked-choice tabulation will not allow Sullivan to overtake Mary once all the votes are counted. The second-choice votes of other candidates are far too few to offset Mary’s advantage among the tens of thousands of early and absentee ballots still to be counted.
Previous Cycles & Post-Election Day Trends: In 2020, 2022, and 2024 the margins for Democratic candidates in Alaska increased in the days and weeks following Election Day.
Rural & Anchorage Votes: Data suggests that the bulk of outstanding votes are from Anchorage and rural Alaska, both of which have broadly favored Mary in the current count.
In the days to come, we are pouring all of our resources into voter protection and making sure that every vote counts. So if you can, please make a contribution to power the fight ahead. Whatever you can give could make all the difference in a race this tight.
Thank you for reading and being with us in this fight for the long haul. Let’s finish the job!
- Team Mary